Guardian Unlimited | The Guardian | From Bali to Baghdad, truth is all
Saddam Hussein is stupid ... but not that stupid. He won't, as he did before, set his armies scarpering across open desert as the skies above grow thick with bombers and missiles. Nor, thanks to the Taliban learning curve, will he even think of stopping to fight in plain view. He will not head for the hills, but for the teeming alleyways of the cities. This, prospectively, is Black Hawk Down Again, not Heartbreak Ridge (or even Rambo). This is Mogadishu 1993, the bloody, futile game of hunting Mohamed Farah Aideed replayed on a bigger screen - except that Baghdad (at seven million souls plus) is eight times more populous than the Somali capital: and that Iraq has seven other cities of more than half a million. More alleys than there can be allied troops.

We're back, inevitably, with the scenario that gave George senior pause. Not too many American (or British) troops getting killed. That, from the Gulf to Kabul, is more likely to be from friendly fire or simple accident again. No: the devil here is too many local victims. Too many conscript peasant soldiers roasted. Too many innocents mown down along the side of the road. Too many hospitals and childrens' homes razed for real. Too many innocent lives and images to haunt us. City and suburban storm.